tennis - Montreal

[mjred]

been posting these in the rubber room with a bit of success, decided to move them upstairs with football coming on so they not so lost down there.

posted record http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=3963098685&m=14510681

12-1 +19.55 (risk1/win1 dog/fave)

winner yesterday with delgado at +195

pending play on gonzales over henman at +130 (down to +114 at pinn now but still an overlay down to at least +100 by my numbers)

taking mr. black +390 over mr. ferreira today in the battle of waynes' world. like delgado yesterday black is off a nice qualifying for this tournament and ferreira off a win in la on sunday, may have some travel fatigue here.

along the same lines one could make a case for backing lopez over coria for the trifecta of fades of last week's champs. i will pass on this one as coria's recent form is amazing (15-0 run, tho all on clay) at +250 or more this is certainly not a bad shot.

may have one more later.

gl

mj

 

[bigboydan]

i took henman in this match and gonzo's knee is really hurting so i bet i get screwed in this one because of pinnys new rules for tennis that just went into affect somehow if he retires

 

[jurdo]

Ret. W. Ferreira 4 1

(Q) W. Black 6 2

well you've picked 2 retirements so far, and coria just lost 1st set 6-3, and promptly retired!

 

[bigboydan]

coria retired too i get the double f*ck job today

 

[icedog]

Philippousis just withdrew with a viral infection for his match in at 7:30pm vs Mirnyi. Massu will replace him.

 

[mjred]

ok, well that was either 0-0, 2-0, 0-1, 1-0, or 1-1, depending on where you played, i had both at carib so went 1-1 for +1.9 units. but for record purposes here i'll consider both picks as no action. and posted record to date remains at

12-1 +19.55

don't see much i like today, seems like the favorites are rightly placed for the most part and as i usually am looking for live doggies, that doesn't leave me much. one fave that does look good is shuettler, his head to head record vs kafelnikov is 2-3 but the 2 wins are the more recent (last year) in general these 2 guys' careers have been heading in opposite directions for the past couple seasons. kafelnikov played a 3 setter yesterday and followed it with 3 sets of doubles. shuettler likes to wear down his opponent which should be a good strategy here.

will also put him in a parlay with zabaleta who very much impressed me yesterday with his win over shalken. pays around even$

gl

mj

 

[mjred]

adding one that had overlooked earlier,

el aynaoui is undefeated in 6 matches vs jc ferrero, 3 ofwhich were on hard courts. seems worth a shot here at +147 (pinn)

gl

mj

 

[mjred]

well, zabaleta already dead, went out faster today than he won yesterday. crazy game sometimes. el aynauoi not looking good down a set and a break at the rain delay. holding out hope for shuettler to prevent an 0-fer.

 

[ShinySuitMan]

hey mjred man i thought same thing bout el aynaoui..

have u seen the oncourt software in here man?

i got it and mucked round wif it for this tournie just to see what it can do and its pretty good i have to say

specially for finding true value in your plays

for example spadea i rated 186 v clement 184 hd to hd according to the software..

and books opened spadea at 232!

i still lookin into it but it seems well worth a look if u can man download it and try it out

gl wif your plays

 

[wilheim]

Shuettler easy winner. Keep posting your Tennis, please, it is very well thought off.

Thanks, Wil.

 

[mjred]

shiny, yes. i downloaded it the other day after they posted here. well worth the price for the recordkeeping alone, going to save me hours and hours. not sure i like their method of ratings. matches won/lost is their main criteria and that is pretty crude. my system for tennis power ratings is kind of a hybrid of a couple methods that i have picked up over the years but they have in common that they are based on games won/lost rather than matches. match wins/losses are used to make adjustments which are based on the quality of the opponent one beat (or lost to, negative adjustment)

 

[mjred]

1-2 yesterday for a loss of a unit

overall 13-3 +18.55


today

taking spadea over nalbandian. one head to head meeting was in '01 us open, nalbandian won that one but like spadea's current form is decent and this is his best surface. make the quarters last week in los angeles while nalbandy was playing on dirt in poland. not going to give nalbandian too much credit for beating henman as neither had a very good match there. spadea has twice as many matches on hard courts in the past year and his record is a respectable 21-12, nalbandian is only 9-6 on hard in the past year and certainly favors playing on clay as evidenced by his being in poland lw.
spadea +135 at carib

will also back beck at +150 (carib) using carib here as want to protect against potenial for lopez' retirement. he retired in his second rd match last week and may still be nursing an injury here. beck has put together 4 nice matches here through qualies and 1st 2rds beating some strong hard courters in the process (tho looks like zabaleta was not 100% yesterday). meanwhile lopez got a pass in the coria match and beat mathieu who is much more of a dirt guy

ferrero -300 over kucera looks very strong for a chalky too. yes i faded ferrero yesterday but that was because i liked el aynaoui (at 6-0 lifetime vs him) that win impressed and i think kucera finds himself in well over his head here. (carib again, pinny is -350 on this right now)

gl

mj.

 

[Railbird]

Vince is on a down trend last 2 weeks, he peaked a month ago, Vince is burnt out. Kiefer took him to grade school last week and nalbandian will do the same this week.

 

[Railbird]

Ferrero could be a top 3 player if he changed his grip for hard court.

 

[mjred]

good call on nalbandian rail, spadea might be getting too old to expect him to go much beyond 2nd rd.

nfi what happened to ferrero, his serve totally deserted him and he only won 50% of his first serve points. broken in 3 of first 5 service games. i knew kucera would be tough on his own serve, never expected ferrero to have nothing on his.

6 of 8 faves won today, mine not being one of them of course.

tough day on the br. 0-3 -5units

overall 13-6 for +13.55

don't usually play much from the 1/4s on but will post if i see something, elsewise. back next week.

 

[mjred]

been looking at agassi's numbers for past 2 weeks and they really are not that great. pushed to 3 sets by blake last week before losign to gonzelez and winning vs pretty week competion so far this week with davydenko giving him a good battle. his price maybe a bit steep tomorrow vs shuettler, probably based on the finals match at the australian. agassi was certainly the more fit player at that time but not so sure he is now. will be looking at shuettler a bit further but certainy a consideration as of now

[This message was edited by mjred on August 08, 2003 at 01:58 AM.]

 

[mjred]

hopefully someone took shuettler on my opinion, and concurrence from railbird. i ended up passing it

but cest la vie.

taking roddick today at +150 not really sure why other than gut feeling. my current ratings have it as a very slight overlay, about 2.5% which is usually not enough to warrant a play but sometimes you go with your gut. i think there is a general tendency to overprice the recent h2h winner.

gl

mj

 

[Railbird]

seems like roddick was 160 at wimbledon, going to pass on that, but like Schiavone +7 games at 5dimes

 

[mjred]

needed a 3rd set tiebreaker, but roddick gets it done. good finish to the week.


no play for the finals here will return early monday with plays for tms cincinnati.

posted record
14-6,+14.85 units

 

[GreenDoberman]

nice job red , solid capping throughout,hope to see more of you in the future.